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2006年11月12日 (日)

日本の地価の長期リターン(2)

 大人の自由研究と化したこのシリーズ。日本の地価の長期リターン編。まずは、計算した表です。

  例によって、いっぱいあります。

  分析結果は次のエントリーで。

市街地価格指数リターン(1955-2005) (インフレ調整なし)(1/2)

Year 住宅地 1年 5年 10年 15年 20年 25年
1955 1.52

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-

-

-

-

-

1956 1.74 14.47%

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-

-

-

-

1957 2.19 25.86%

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-

-

-

-

1958 2.70 23.29%

-

-

-

-

-

1959 3.34 23.70%

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-

-

-

-

1960 4.10 22.75% 21.95%

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-

-

-

1961 5.65 37.80% 26.56%

-

-

-

-

1962 7.15 26.55% 26.70%

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-

-

-

1963 8.26 15.52% 25.06%

-

-

-

-

1964 9.40 13.80% 22.99%

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-

-

-

1965 10.8 14.89% 21.37% 21.66%

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-

-

1966 11.4 5.56% 15.07% 20.68%

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-

-

1967 12.6 10.53% 12.00% 19.12%

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-

-

1968 14.7 16.67% 12.22% 18.47%

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-

-

1969 17.6 19.73% 13.36% 18.08%

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-

-

1970 21.5 22.16% 14.76% 18.02% 19.32%

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-

1971 25.3 17.67% 17.29% 16.17% 19.54%

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-
1972 29.0 14.62% 18.14% 15.03% 18.79%

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-

1973 37.4 28.97% 20.53% 16.30% 19.15%

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-

1974 47.1 25.94% 21.76% 17.49% 19.29%

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-

1975 45.2 -4.03% 16.02% 15.39% 17.35% 18.49%

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1976 45.9 1.55% 12.65% 14.95% 14.99% 17.78%

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1977 47.7 3.92% 10.46% 14.24% 13.49% 16.66%

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1978 50.0 4.82% 5.98% 13.02% 12.75% 15.71%

-

1979 53.7 7.40% 2.66% 11.80% 12.32% 14.90%

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1980 60.6 12.85% 6.04% 10.92% 12.19% 14.42% 15.88%
1981 68.0 12.21% 8.18% 10.39% 12.64% 13.25% 15.79%
1982 74.2 9.12% 9.24% 9.85% 12.55% 12.41% 15.13%
1983 78.5 5.80% 9.44% 7.70% 11.82% 11.92% 14.43%
1984 81.3 3.57% 8.65% 5.61% 10.74% 11.39% 13.62%
1985 83.5 2.71% 6.62% 6.33% 9.47% 10.77% 12.81%
1986 85.3 2.16% 4.64% 6.39% 8.44% 10.59% 11.47%
1987 89.1 4.45% 3.73% 6.45% 7.77% 10.27% 10.62%
1988 96.6 8.42% 4.24% 6.81% 6.53% 9.87% 10.34%
1989 101.9 5.49% 4.62% 6.62% 5.28% 9.18% 10.00%
1990 114.9 12.76% 6.59% 6.61% 6.42% 8.74% 9.92%
1991 126.1 9.75% 8.13% 6.37% 6.97% 8.36% 10.09%
1992 123.0 -2.46% 6.66% 5.18% 6.52% 7.49% 9.54%
1993 116.9 -4.96% 3.89% 4.06% 5.83% 5.86% 8.65%
1994 113.5 -2.91% 2.18% 3.39% 5.12% 4.50% 7.74%
1995 111.8 -1.50% -0.55% 2.96% 4.17% 4.63% 6.82%
1996 109.7 -1.88% -2.75% 2.55% 3.24% 4.45% 6.04%
1997 108.0 -1.55% -2.57% 1.94% 2.53% 4.17% 5.40%
1998 106.5 -1.39% -1.85% 0.98% 2.05% 3.85% 4.27%
1999 103.7 -2.63% -1.79% 0.18% 1.64% 3.35% 3.21%
2000 100.0 -3.57% -2.21% -1.38% 1.21% 2.54% 3.23%
2001 96.0 -4.00% -2.63% -2.69% 0.79% 1.74% 3.00%
2002 91.7 -4.48% -3.22% -2.89% 0.19% 1.06% 2.65%
2003 87.3 -4.80% -3.90% -2.88% -0.67% 0.53% 2.25%

2004

81.7 -6.41% -4.66% -3.23% -1.46% 0.02% 1.69%

2005

77.3 -5.39% -5.02% -3.62% -2.61% -0.39% 0.98%

市街地価格指数リターン(1955-2005) (インフレ調整なし)(2/2)

Year 住宅地 30年 35年 40年
1984 81.3 - - -
1985 83.5 14.29% - -
1986 85.3 13.85% - -
1987 89.1 13.15% - -
1988 96.6 12.66% - -
1989 101.9 12.07% - -
1990 114.9 11.75% 13.15% -
1991 126.1 10.91% 13.02% -
1992 123.0 9.95% 12.20% -
1993 116.9 9.23% 11.37% -
1994 113.5 8.66% 10.60% -
1995 111.8 8.10% 9.91% 11.34%
1996 109.7 7.84% 8.84% 10.92%
1997 108.0 7.42% 8.07% 10.24%
1998 106.5 6.82% 7.58% 9.62%
1999 103.7 6.09% 7.10% 8.97%
2000 100.0 5.26% 6.57% 8.31%
2001 96.0 4.55% 6.28% 7.34%
2002 91.7 3.91% 5.83% 6.59%
2003 87.3 2.87% 5.22% 6.07%
2004 81.7 1.85% 4.48% 5.55%
2005 77.3 1.80% 3.72% 5.04%

市街地価格指数リターン(1955-2005) (インフレ調整あり)(1/2)

Year 補正値 1年 5年 10年 15年 20年 25年
1955 8.59

-

-

-

-

-

-

1956 9.83 14.47%

-

-

-

-

-

1957 11.97 21.74%

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-

-

-

-

1958 14.84 23.97%

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-

-

-

-

1959 18.15 22.36%

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-

-

-

-

1960 21.47 18.26% 20.11%

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-

-

-

1961 28.11 30.95% 23.38%

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-

-

-

1962 33.41 18.86% 22.79%

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-

-

-

1963 35.76 7.02% 19.24%

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-

-

-

1964 39.17 9.53% 16.63%

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-

-

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1965 42.4 8.14% 14.56% 17.30%

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-

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1966 42.5 0.44% 8.64% 15.78%

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-

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1967 45.3 6.55% 6.29% 14.24%

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-

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1968 50.0 10.32% 6.94% 12.92%

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-

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1969 56.8 13.55% 7.71% 12.08%

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-

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1970 64.6 13.72% 8.80% 11.64% 14.40%

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1971 71.7 11.01% 11.00% 9.81% 14.16%

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1972 78.6 9.65% 11.64% 8.93% 13.37%

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1973 90.8 15.51% 12.67% 9.76% 12.84%

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-

1974 91.8 1.14% 10.09% 8.89% 11.41%

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1975 78.7 -14.23% 4.05% 6.40% 9.05% 11.72%

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1976 73.1 -7.18% 0.39% 5.56% 6.58% 10.55%

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1977 70.4 -3.74% -2.19% 4.50% 5.09% 9.26%

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1978 71.1 1.09% -4.76% 3.59% 4.69% 8.15%

-

1979 73.7 3.57% -4.31% 2.64% 4.30% 7.25%

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1980 77.0 4.53% -0.45% 1.78% 4.07% 6.60% 9.17%
1981 82.3 6.91% 2.41% 1.40% 4.50% 5.52% 8.87%
1982 87.6 6.41% 4.48% 1.09% 4.49% 4.94% 8.29%
1983 90.9 3.71% 5.02% 0.01% 4.06% 4.77% 7.52%
1984 92.1 1.34% 4.56% 0.03% 3.28% 4.37% 6.71%
1985 92.7 0.65% 3.78% 1.64% 2.44% 3.99% 6.03%
1986 94.4 1.82% 2.77% 2.59% 1.85% 4.06% 4.96%
1987 98.8 4.69% 2.43% 3.45% 1.54% 3.97% 4.43%
1988 106.5 7.82% 3.23% 4.12% 1.07% 3.85% 4.46%
1989 109.8 3.10% 3.59% 4.07% 1.20% 3.35% 4.21%
1990 120.2 9.46% 5.34% 4.55% 2.86% 3.16% 4.26%
1991 127.6 6.19% 6.23% 4.48% 3.79% 2.93% 4.49%
1992 122.5 -4.01% 4.40% 3.41% 3.77% 2.24% 4.06%
1993 115.1 -6.08% 1.56% 2.39% 3.26% 1.19% 3.39%
1994 111.3 -3.29% 0.27% 1.91% 2.79% 0.97% 2.73%
1995 109.8 -1.30% -1.79% 1.71% 2.40% 1.68% 2.15%
1996 107.8 -1.88% -3.33% 1.34% 1.81% 1.96% 1.64%
1997 104.4 -3.07% -3.14% 0.56% 1.18% 2.00% 1.14%
1998 102.3 -2.05% -2.32% -0.40% 0.79% 1.83% 0.48%
1999 100.0 -2.25% -2.11% -0.93% 0.55% 1.54% 0.34%
2000 97.3 -2.72% -2.40% -2.09% 0.32% 1.18% 0.85%
2001 94.3 -3.06% -2.63% -2.98% 0.00% 0.68% 1.02%
2002 91.1 -3.44% -2.71% -2.92% -0.54% 0.19% 1.04%
2003 87.0 -4.51% -3.20% -2.76% -1.34% -0.22% 0.81%

2004

81.4 -6.41% -4.04% -3.08% -1.98% -0.62% 0.40%

2005

77.3 -5.01% -4.49% -3.45% -2.90% -0.90% 0.02%

市街地価格指数リターン(1955-2005) (インフレ調整あり)(2/2)

Year 補正値 30年 35年 40年
1984 92.1 - - -
1985 92.7 8.25% - -
1986 94.4 7.83% - -
1987 98.8 7.29% - -
1988 106.5 6.79% - -
1989 109.8 6.18% - -
1990 120.2 5.91% 7.83% -
1991 127.6 5.17% 7.60% -
1992 122.5 4.43% 6.87% -
1993 115.1 3.97% 6.03% -
1994 111.3 3.54% 5.32% -
1995 109.8 3.23% 4.77% 6.58%
1996 107.8 3.15% 3.91% 6.17%
1997 104.4 2.82% 3.31% 5.57%
1998 102.3 2.42% 3.05% 4.95%
1999 100.0 1.90% 2.71% 4.36%
2000 97.3 1.38% 2.40% 3.85%
2001 94.3 0.92% 2.30% 3.07%
2002 91.1 0.49% 2.01% 2.54%
2003 87.0 -0.14% 1.59% 2.25%
2004 81.4 -0.40% 1.03% 1.84%
2005 77.3 -0.06% 0.52% 1.52%

分析結果は、次のエントリーで。

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